War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".